Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, PhD

Starting in January 2025, I will begin leading my own research project as an Ambizione Fellow at the University of Bern, supported by a four-year fellowship from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF).

The goal of the project ("Forecasting midlatitude storm impacts beyond current predictability limits") is to improve the prediction of extreme winter storms in the North Atlantic and Europe over sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales - ranging from two weeks to two months. By using state-of-the-art idealised climate models, statistical methods and machine learning, as well as risk assessment models, the project aims to identify key atmospheric factors and precursors that drive the frequency and intensity of mid-latitude storms.

Email: hilla.gerstman@env.ethz.ch

RESEARCH FOCUS

My research interests are mid-latitude weather and climate, storm track and jet stream dynamics, variability and predictability, extreme weather events (e.g., extreme extratropical cyclones, windstorms, marine and land cold air outbreaks, heatwaves) and their impacts, drivers of extreme weather in present and future climate.
Exploring the potential for improving the prediction skill of surface weather in mid-latitude and polar regions on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S; beyond 10 days and up to three months) timescales.
I also have ongoing interest in understanding the impact of climate change on extratropical storms and windstorm damage over Europe using CMIP6 and a wide range of statistical tools and platforms.
Stratosphere-troposphere coupling and stratospheric impact on mid-latitude weather and climate, in particular the impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) and strong polar vortex events on extratropical storm track, jet stream and cold extremes.

CURRENT PROJECTS

Exploring the predictability of winter North Atlantic storm track in subseasonal re-forecasts
The downward impact of the stratosphere in current and future climates (my Marie Sklodowska-Curie research project: stratoIMPACT).
Winter windstorm impact in Europe in a changing climate

NEWS / OPEN POSITIONS

Starting from February 2025: A new PhD position is available at the Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Switzerland. For more details check out the Job Posting.
New Bachelor/Master projects (for enrolled students) on the predictability of storm clustering events over Europe and the role of the stratospheric polar vortex.
We are offering a Master thesis project at ETH (for enrolled Mater students) on "Predicting Rain in the Sahara on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales" (co-supervision together with Moshe Koko Armon, D-USYS, ETH)

stratoIMPACT

Exploring how the downward impact of the stratosphere will change in future climate.

European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant No 891514.

ABOUT ME

I have a PhD from the Weizmann Institute of Science, where I worked with Prof. Yohai Kaspi on the seasonal cycle of midlatitude storm tracks and the "Midwinter Suppression" of transient eddies in the North Pacific using idealised GCMs.

I did my postdoctoral research at the ETH Zürich, working with Prof. Dr. Daniela Domeisen in the group of Atmospheric Predictability. I am a recipient of the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship. I also took part in the EU Horizon2020 research Project "Blue-Action" for understanding the impact of the Arctic of European weather and climate.

Since 2024, I am also affiliated with the University of Lausanne (UNIL), Switzerland, as a postdoc in the Atmospheric Process group.

I also teach on the science behind climate change as part of these MSc courses at UNIL:

- Weather and Climate Dynamics (Spring, 2023, 2024)

- Environmental Crisis and Societal Change (Spring, 2023)

EDUCATION

2012 - 2018

Ph.D. Weizmann Institute of Science

PhD in Atmospheric Dynamics.

In my PhD, I was working with Prof. Yohai Kaspi on mechanisms controlling the seasonal variability of mid-latitude storm tracks. We used both reanalysis data and an idealized GCM, in which we implemented a seasonal cycle to study the storm track response to variations in the strength and location of the jet stream. We also studied the midwinter suppression of the Pacific storm track, a major open research question in the field of Atmospheric Dynamics.

2007 - 2010

M.Sc. Weizmann Institute of Science

M.Sc. in Physical Oceanography.

2003 - 2007

B.Sc.

Tel Aviv University

B.Sc. in Geophysics, Atmospheric and Planetary Science