I am leading a research project as an Ambizione Fellow at the University of Bern, supported by a four-year fellowship from the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF).

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Link to my Uni Bern page

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The goal of the project ("Forecasting midlatitude storm impacts beyond current predictability limits") is to improve the prediction of extreme winter storms in Europe and the North Atlantic at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales - ranging from two weeks to two months.

While advances in numerical weather prediction and the emergence of machine learning based forecasts have significantly improved short-term weather prediction, forecast accuracy rapidly decreases after only a few days. This presents a critical challenge for predicting high-impact storms. 

By using state-of-the-art idealized climate models, statistical post-processing and machine learning, as well as impact forecasting models, the project aims to identify key atmospheric factors and precursors that drive the frequency and intensity of mid-latitude storms. 

Quantifying and understanding these connections – from precursors to hazards and impacts – is vital for bridging the gap between weather and climate, and for enabling earlier warnings for society and for decision-makers in sectors such as emergency preparedness, public health, energy, and water management.